Scientists peer into heart of hurricanes to improve intensity forecast by flying aircrafts inside storms
espite advances in predicting where hurricanes are heading, forecasters are still struggling to determine a crucial factor in deciding emergency measures and evacuations: their intensity. With a better way to predict a storm’s power, or intensity, people on the ground will be more prepared in knowing whether a hurricane headed their way will cause devastating floods and winds that can uproot trees like Maria, which devastated Puerto Rico last year, or just shake branches and rattle windows.
Due to warming sea and air temperatures, there is also more energy in storms, which might affect intensity predictions, some climate scientists have said. „Climate change potentially affects the frequency, intensity and tracks of tropical cyclones,“ MIT climate professor Kerry Emanuel wrote in a recent academic paper. Measuring a hurricane’s intensity quickly and formulating predictions on its changes is key to giving people on the ground time to prepare as the Atlantic hurricane season peaks this year after a devastating 2017 season.
There are more than a dozen scientific models for predicting hurricane intensity but they are of limited use, scientists say. While the science of tracking a storm relies heavily on data about conditions on its periphery, predicting intensity relies on finding where its energy is coming from by measuring what is happening in the middle of it. Typically, that means flying a hurricane hunter aircraft inside the storm, measuring wind speeds as a storm passes overhead or relying on satellites that may fly over once every other day.
One project to obtain more data to predict intensity is the Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System or CYGNSS for short, a constellation of eight low-orbit satellites launched by NASA in 2016. CYGNSS was designed to measure surface winds in and near the inner core of tropical systems, including regions that could not previously be measured from space. With more satellites passing over more often, and being in a position closer to the storms, it offers more real-time data to be plugged into intensity models…
CYGNSS could be fully operational next year, researchers said.
Michael Brennan, branch chief of the hurricane specialist unit at the National Hurricane Center, said the 2017 hurricane season saw a great deal of rapid intensification when storms quickly picked up, or lost, power.
In the Atlantic basin forecasters correctly forecasted six of 39 instances of rapid intensification, Brennan said.
„It doesn’t sound like a really great number, but 10 years ago that number would have been zero,“ he said.
JON HERSKOVITZ
Text pochází z agentury Reuters Zdroj LN
SLOVÍČKA
peer upírat zrak
forecast předpověď, prognóza
storm bouře
despite navzdory, i přes
predict předpovídat
head mířit, směřovat
crucial klíčový, rozhodující
measure opatření
cause způsobit
flood povodeň, potopa
uproot vyvrátit
rattle zařinčet
affect ovlivnit
track cesta, dráha
peak vrcholit, kulminovat
dozen tucet
rely záviset
heavily velmi, do značné míry
hunter lovec
every other day každý druhý den
obtain získat
launch vypustit
surface povrch
core jádro
plug into napojit se
pick up nabrat
Atlantic basin Atlantský oceán
NAUČTE SE GRAMATIKU PODLE TEXTU
V dnešním textu jsme se setkali s výrazem due to, a sice ve větě „Due to warming sea and air temperatures…“ („Kvůli zvyšující se teplotě moře i vzduchu…“). Výraz due topřeložíme jako kvůli, z důvodu. Složenými předložkami vyjadřujícími příčinu či důvod, které můžeme přeložit českým kvůli, jsou because of (univerzální), due to (univerzální – negativní), thanks to (pozitivní), owing to (formální). Nezapomeňme, že po předložkách následuje podstatné jméno, zájmeno nebo gerundium, nikoli celá věta.
PŘELOŽTE:
Nejel jsem na hory kvůli zranění. Díky němu jsme projekt dokončili včas. Nikdo ji nepozval kvůli tomu, že si pořád stěžuje.
Řešení: I didn’t go to the mountains because of / due to my injury. Thanks to him, we finished the project in time. Nobody invited her because of / due to her constant complaining.